CHAPTER 4: Demographic Trends

Present Population and Distribution by State

The 1994 FSM Census showed that FSM had a total population of 105,506, of which 3,205 or 3% of the total population were foreigners (other Pacific Islanders, Filipinos, Chinese, Americans, and "others") .

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Table 4. 1 FSM Population by State, 1994

Area	Total Population	Non-Micronesians
Total FSM Chuuk Pohnpei Yap Kosrae	105,506 53,319 33,692 11,178 7,317	3,205 722 1,257 782 444

Source: 1994 FSM Census of Population and Housing (June and July 1996)

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Chuuk State had over half of the FSM total population, followed by Pohnpei with almost a third;
Yap and Kosrae made up the remainder.

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Population Trends

From the turn of the century through the Japanese Colonial period (1914-1945), all four states exhibited negligible or negative population growth, even as the Japanese population swelled during those same years. Despite the medical advances brought by the Japanese, fertility was low and infant mortality remained high. After World War II, by contrast, the four states experienced very rapid population growth. Even Yap, which had suffered a steady population decline since the 1880s, showed a reversal of earlier patterns. With the improvement of health services after the war, mortality declined dramatically while fertility remained high. The annual natural growth rate soared at well over 3 percent. This high rate of growth continued through the 1980s, alarming economists and development planners if not always the local population. Since the late 1980s, however, the growth rate appears to have dropped greatly, with a single exception. The growth rate of Chuuk remains high even today.

Population Density

As the population increases, so does population density. Population density is an important concern to this island nation which has a limited land area of 700 square kilometers (271 square miles), bounded on all sides by the Pacific Ocean. Limited land areas have limited natural resources. The population densities presented in Table 4.2 do not give an accurate representation of real population pressure, since all types of lands (not just habitable and arable) are used in the computations. As population density increases, those natural resources that are most accessible to settlers are vulnerable to over-use and environmental degradation.

Chuuk state's land area is roughly equal to Kosrae's and Yap's, but its population density is nearly three times the national average. All other state densities are lower than the national average. Pohnpei has the largest land area but is still the second most crowded state. Kosrae is the smallest in land area and the least crowded state.

Population Growth

At over 3 percent, FSM's annual population growth rate in post-war years was one of the highest in the world. For years its population growth has been regarded as one of the most serious of the nation's problems. This was seen as a grave obstacle to development, especially in view of the nation's small land area, limited natural resources, and the projected decline in US aid during the last years of the Compact.

1994 census data indicate a downward trend in the annual rate of population growth and total fertility rates. This is encouraging because FSM, with its limited economic potential, is having difficulty keeping up with the many needs of a rapidly increasing population. FSM's annual population growth rate dropped sharply in the early 1990s. Nonetheless, it is important to note that even if the reduced annual growth rate of 1.9% were to continue, FSM's population would double in about 30 years.

The recent drop in the natural growth rate can be attributed to two causes: heavy emigration from FSM since the beginning of the Compact period, and a significant decline in FSM's natural birth rate.

Emigration

Emigration to Guam and Saipan has been an important factor in the decline of FSM's population growth rate since 1986, the year of the inception of the Compact of Free Association. With the Compact provision allowing FSM citizens to enter the US and its territories freely for education or employment, thousands of people left FSM to find jobs elsewhere. Guam and Saipan were favorite destinations. Table 4.4 shows the estimated size of the migrant populations from FSM in both these islands in 1994 based on measured emigration from 1986 to 1992. The same table, using the sum of the 1994 resident population of FSM and the projected migrant populations on these two islands as a denominator, offers rough figures for the rate of emigration to these two islands during the early Compact years. Employing this method of aggregating FSM resident and migrant populations, we may estimate the emigration rate of FSM at about 1 percent a year, with Chuuk's rate the highest of the states at 1.2 percent.

Had it not been for the sudden increase in emigration during the Compact years, the annual population growth would have been significantly higher than it was. Table 4.5 indicates what the annual growth rate, state by state, actually was for the period 1989-1994 and what it would have been if there had been no emigration to Guam and Saipan.

Migration within FSM was also measured by the 1994 Census. Those figures showed that only Pohnpei had a net population gain, probably because it is the nation's capital and attracts national-level employees and their families. The other three states showed a net loss of people.

Birth Rate and Fertility Rate

The decline in the population growth rate is not only due to emigration from FSM. The birth rate has been decreasing for the last decade and a half, the 1994 FSM Census shows. The crude birth rate (CBR)-that is, the number of births in a year divided by the population-has dropped from 38.5 in 1980 to 33.3 in 1990, and has further declined to 31.4 in 1993 (FSM OPS, 1996a: 28-29).

This decrease has been reflected in the decline of fertility rates in FSM. The nation had a total fertility rate (TFR; total births to an average woman, 15-44 years of age) of 4.6, according to the 1994 census. While a 4.6 TFR still contributes to a rapidly growing population, the fertility rate of FSM has been steadily declining. If the current trend continues, FSM's fertility rate could be down to 3.2 by 2009.

The total fertility rate of FSM might be compared with those of other Pacific nations. Based on 1993 data, the Marshall Islands' rate was among the highest in the Pacific at 7.2. CNMI's rate of 2.4 is attributed to a low fertility rate among female migrant workers from Asia. If foreign women were excluded, the rate would very likely be about 5.6. Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu had fertility rates of over 5 (Haberkorn, 1995).

In 1994, Chuuk had the highest number of children per mother (average of 5.6 births) and Yap the lowest number (average of 3.7 births). However, Yap's fertility rate was affected by the significant number of foreign women on Yap Proper who were of reproductive age and had very low fertility. Yap and Pohnpei had high fertility rates among younger women, while Chuuk's high fertility rate among older women suggests an absence of family planning there. Fertility rates were lower for women with more education and women who were in the labor force, suggesting that policies to reduce fertility levels could be directed at increasing female education levels and participation in the work force. Strengthening of family planning programs and education of the people regarding population issues would also be advisable.

As evidenced by the near equal length of the lowest two bars of the FSM 1994 population pyramid, there was almost no growth in the youngest segment of the FSM population over the 10 years prior to the 1994 census and very little growth during the five years previous to this. This is mainly due to the decline in the FSM birth rate during the past decade and extensive loss through emigration.

Although the sex ratio has remained about 105 males per 100 females from 1973 through 1994, there appears to be a shortage of males in the 20-29 age group and in the 50+ group. This is thought to be due to selective out-migration of males, aged 20-29. The decline in the 50+ group may be due to a combination of emigration and mortality.

The FSM general population is gradually increasing in age. Since 1973 the median age has risen by one year, to 17.8 years, according to the 1994 census.

FSM's 1994 dependency ratio was 89 (meaning that for every 100 persons of working age, there are 89 dependents, i.e., children and elderly), a decline from 102 in 1973. This indicates a relative increase in the working age population. (The dependency ratio should not be confused with the economically active ratio which considers only economically active persons of working age.) The decrease in the dependency ratio can be considered a positive change, although the decrease in at least one state (Yap) could be attributable in part to the presence of 300 Asian workers employed at a garment factory that was opened in 1986.

Population Projections

Population projections are only as accurate as the assumptions used when calculating them. Such projections can be helpful to planners, policy makers, administrators, etc. in preparing for future population impacts on the nation's cultural, environmental, social and economic resources. Three projected population scenarios (based on possible variations in fertility, mortality and migration) are depicted in Figure 4.4.

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Table 4.7: Demographic Indicators from Other Micronesian Islands

Country	Census Year	Intercensal Growth Rates	Median Age	Sex Ratio
FSM	1994	1.9	17.8	105
Guam	1990	2.3	25.0	114
Kiribati	1990	2.3	19.9	98
Marshall Islands	1988	4.2	14.1	105
Nauru	1992	2.9	18.0	105
CNMI	1990	9.5	27.4	111
Palau	1990	2.0	25.2	117

Source: FSM Census 1994Figure 4. 4 Three Projected Population Scenarios, 1994 to 2014

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Source: 1994 FSM Census of Population and Housing

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Scenario 1 represents the upper population growth extreme by the year 2014, and is based on the presuppositions that the fertility rate will remain constant, the mortality rate will improve moderately, and no further migration will occur. Scenario 3 represents the lower population growth extreme by the year 2014; it presumes that the fertility rate will rapidly decline, the mortality rate will improve moderately, and the migration rate will decline moderately. Scenario 2 is believed to be the most likely situation over the next 10 years according to the FSM Office of Planning and Statistics. It presumes a moderate decline in the fertility rate, moderate improvement in the mortality rate, and moderate decline in the migration rate.

Whichever scenario proves to be more accurate, it is crucial for policy makers and planners to expect FSM's future population to be much larger no matter what happens to current fertility levels due to a "momentum of population growth." The momentum exists because in today's population the large numbers of young women entering their child-bearing years by far exceeds the number of older women leaving their reproductive years. Even if fertility levels continue to fall, this will be offset, at least for a time, by declining infant mortality rates and higher life expectancies (Haberkorn, 1995).

Population increases mean greater needs for job opportunities, schools, infrastructure, public utilities, police and fire protection, emergency services, housing, recreational facilities, health facilities and services, other social services, etc. Moreover, the large unemployed segment of the adult population will feel additional pressure on the limited land at their disposal to produce the food required to feed themselves. Needless to say, as the FSM develops its nascent tourist industry, the country will experience further strain on its infrastructure, public services, and other resources.

Population growth clearly remains an area of concern for FSM, as it is for most countries in the Pacific. In view of the declining birth rates and the heavy emigration over the last decade, however, it is no longer as critical an issue as it was ten or fifteen years ago. The most likely trajectories for the population change over the next 20 years would show a growth to between 140,000 and 150,000 by 2014. While population growth of this magnitude is a serious matter, FSM citizens can be expected to adjust the population to available resources, as the people living on coral atolls have always done and continue to do today. Emigration is a safety valve that was written into the Compact for that purpose and has drained off some of the surplus labor pool in the last ten years. A more serious question, and the one that commands the attention of the nation at this time, is: How even the existing population will fare at the end of the Compact in 2001.